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FAQ

Why can't Eskom generate enough power?

It's controversial but probably because of state capture and general corruption in South Africa and especially at South Africa's State Owned Enterprises.

Because Eskom failed to build new generation capacity, it ran its aging power plants far harder than it should have. (Eskom benchmarks the performance of its coal-fired power stations against those of the members of Vereinigung der Großkesselbesitzer, a European-based technical association for electricity and heat generation industries.)

Here's a graph showing the utilization factor of Eskom's plants compared to VGB benchmarks.

VGB benchmark graph

Why do you trust the data?

I don't particularly. It is erratically updated, and often unavailable. My current email thread with mediadesk@eskom runs to hundreds of emails. Each time I notice something wrong with the data (out of date, broken format, missing, unlikely) I ask them. Sometimes they respond. Sometimes I follow up a few times and then they respond. The shorter term data that they usually update every day (the graphs and CSVs on their 'data portal') often doesn't perfectly match the longer term data that you can request though their data request form. The data in the PowerBI charts often does not match the data in the CSV exports that should be hard-linked to those charts. Shrug emoji.

But from what I've seen, this can all be ascribed to incompetence, not malice. I've heard every conspiracy theory imagineable, including but not limited to

  • ANC controls eskom and creates loadshedding for political gain
  • ANC controls eskom and stops loadshedding for political gain
  • Corrupt contractors control eskom and sabotage power plants to milk maintenance contracts (I think Eskom supports this directly so probably not a conspiracy theory)
  • Corrupt IPPs control eskom and sabotage coal plants in order to sell more OCGT (diesel) energy at high rates

I'm sure some mix of these are true, but I don't believe that Eskom is a cohesive and well-run organization. This means that it's as hard for any evil person to gain control over it as it is for anyone competent and well meaning.

The data published through the Eskom.com website is barely ever referred to or used in any Eskom media statements or government media statements. It seems to be run by some smaller function within Eskom and to have at least some people who care enough to fix their CSV files when they break and are bothered about it, but not care enough to actually make it reliable or easy to understand (hence this website). Often individuals from Eskom, from the government, or related to either makes statements that contradicts the data.

I think most people don't know that the 'eskom data portal' exists, and most don't care.

So tl;dr I'm open to any new information or well-reasoned arguments anyone wants to share about why they think this data is bullshit and why I'm wasting my time collecting and analysing it, but overall I will apply Occam's Razor and Hanlon's Razor, and assume that the published data at least broadly gives some kind of indication of what is happening inside Eskom.